2023 Seasonality Forecast

After years of trading, I firmly believe, and this is my opinion, the professionals are taking huge sums out of the market using the simplest of techniques. What could be more simple than following the calendar year after year? 

It is the retail trader who engages in paralysis from analysis.

Meanwhile the movers and the shakers of the trading profession are  following the same plan (seasonality forecast) they always trade. Why? Because the Herd knows the  big money crowd can push the market around and as long as everyone plays  the same game, everyone profits. Looking at seasonal trading tendency...seeing the repeating calendar action...we observe the professional herd trading foot prints typically year after year.

With the Introduction to Seasonality Forecasting, report, I am taking the approach "seeing is believing and pictures are proof." 

I find most seasonality studies are statistics intensive.  Such reports might count a seasonal trading event as working, even if the  position trader would have entered and exit in a single day or two.  Alternatively, if the trade made as little as $100 (or less), the trade  is counted as a positive statistic.  I do not agree with this approach. 

Another useless statistic is how much a seasonal trade would have made over the last 20 or more years. Really? This kind of number glosses over the idea every year is a  unique event so we must look at fundamentals with cursory glance AND our analysis tools. Also, looking at a 20 year history accumulated gains is likely not based on actual trades taken, but a computer search of best possible out-come.

I also do not agree on entering a trade on an exact certain date. Trading is not absolute or precise! A trader should use seasonality as a back drop of what "tends" to occur. We look at the exact date I provide, yet we are flexible knowing the trade might start a little earlier or a little later. Yes,  sometimes the trade will emerge on the exact date I provide...but we  are flexible and look at seasonality forecast as providing us with a "window of opportunity."

You have other technical indicators for specific entry  beyond the scope of seasonality. You are also a discretionary trader.  When you see normal seasonal tendency line up with your technical  analysis, it is similar to wind filling the sail for your  trade...especially trend trading.

Chart readers are visual traders. We view the chart with a comfortable quiet confidence based on seasonal history. We find a  trade aligned with seasonal tendency and technical analysis...a trade opportunity we believe presents a good  probability of generating follow-through...yet knowing nothing in trading is  100%!
 

Yes, we know every seasonal signal provided should be an unique trading event for a given instrument...but what we find with seasonality is repeating patterns. If an action repeats, we can trade it. That's where the excitement starts! We also know nothing is 100% and our motto is "anything can happen."

The Introduction to Seasonality report I provide is an excellent beginners guide pointing out seasonal price moves which tend to occur year after year. 

The Introduction to Seasonal Forecasting report is  an approachable tool providing you with a visual road map price  frequently travels.  The report IS NOT filled with tables of statistics. 

For 2023, I have done two things to help you use this report. First, I created a video showing how you can enhance the seasonal buy or sell dates with simple technical analysis. I also send you the script I created for this video.

Second - And this is BIG!

For the first time since I started publishing these charts, I have culled through some of the BEST seasonal trades for each month and listed them for you with a brief commentary. I suggest alternatives for some of the futures trades by listing either ETFs or stocks you can work with buying/selling OR using options. 

My work shows 80% probability of follow through or greater for these picks, but of course this does not guarantee a 100% winner! Past results DO NOT guarantee future results. Further, please remember working with seasonality is just ONE tool in your trader took kit. I would never trade on seasonality alone!

The trade picks I provide this year cover equity index futures, crude, gold, bonds, and other futures including Corn, Soybeans and Wheat. Again, you have a month by month trade suggestion laid out for you in writing, as an addition to the chart book showing dates. 

 I am including 9 sector ETF charts in addition to the major futures markets.  

Seasonality is made possible by repeating price patterns created by the big money players. Follow the Herd rather than fight against them.

Remember futures trading and trading options is not a suitable  investment for all. Please consult a licensed professional prior to  trading with any real money. Past results do not guarantee future  results. For more information on our disclaimer, please visit the  Home page here.